Post by elalacran on Nov 15, 2012 13:24:45 GMT -5
Make no mistake about it, it was a close race. The Republicans though could have made it closer. Coulda won! So what went wrong for them?
Here are some ideas.
1. Organization. Campaign content aside, Obama had far better campaign staff. He waren't just a-woofin' when he credited his campaign people for the win. He won every "battleground state" but one, and that was because of organization and information.
Romney's campaign staff were clueless and inadequate, relying on inaccurate polls that put them ahead, and were in shock and denial on election night. The GOP and associated PACs blitzed the airwaves in the final days, outspending the Democrats several times over, to no avail.
When the exit polls of early voting showed more Democrats than Republicans had voted, why didn't that cause tremors in the GOP?
2. Public perception. Polls showed for days that while Romney was perceived as more astute in economic matters (which I disagree with), Obama was more favorably perceived. Was more likeable. Shouldn't that have raised alarms among the GOP? Apparently not.
3. Because most voters do not vote, it all comes down to sho shows up. The GOP was banking on a higher turnout for their candidates. As it happened, and as early voting exit polls suggested, that was building a house on sand.
4. Problems with Romney himself.
(A.) Romney had serious credibility issues. His switching sides on issues was documented, and it was always timed to help him come election time. Romney was anybody's dog who would take him to hunt.
(B.) The direction Romney moved to in order to secure the nomination was toward radicalism and away from the center, and thus away from most voters. He never made a clear move back.
(C.) Romney's background as a wealthy financier type surely horrified his campaign strategists. They tried to make it into an asset, but to most Americans, it was a turn-off, like making the evil banker in an old Tom Mix movie into the hero.
(D.) Romney shot himself in the foot by portraying America as almost evenly divided into moochers and producers. Apparently that was the real Romney, because this week he reiterated the view that Obama was elected by constituencies expecting a handout.
5. The economy. Bill Clinton's / James Carville's mantra "It's the economy, stupid!" ought to have won for Romney but it didn't. Going by poll results, positioning Romney as an ecoomic expert who could create jobs succeeded. But it still could not overcome the negatives.
6. A ship sailing against the wind. Romney and the GOP are consistently on the losing side of the numbers, whether it is abortion, contraception, taxation of the wealthy -- even Obamacare, since while most Americans came to oppose Obamacare, most wanted some kind of health insurance reform.
7. By gluing together evangelicals, racists, xenophobes, anti-environmentalists, anti-federalists, business people and the wealthy and those who identify with the wealthy, the Republicans have managed to dominate in some regions and some states. But the components of the GOP always threaten to fragment the way the nucleus of an unstable atom fragments, and they scare the heck out of some non-Republican voters who otherwise might vote with them.
Here are some ideas.
1. Organization. Campaign content aside, Obama had far better campaign staff. He waren't just a-woofin' when he credited his campaign people for the win. He won every "battleground state" but one, and that was because of organization and information.
Romney's campaign staff were clueless and inadequate, relying on inaccurate polls that put them ahead, and were in shock and denial on election night. The GOP and associated PACs blitzed the airwaves in the final days, outspending the Democrats several times over, to no avail.
When the exit polls of early voting showed more Democrats than Republicans had voted, why didn't that cause tremors in the GOP?
2. Public perception. Polls showed for days that while Romney was perceived as more astute in economic matters (which I disagree with), Obama was more favorably perceived. Was more likeable. Shouldn't that have raised alarms among the GOP? Apparently not.
3. Because most voters do not vote, it all comes down to sho shows up. The GOP was banking on a higher turnout for their candidates. As it happened, and as early voting exit polls suggested, that was building a house on sand.
4. Problems with Romney himself.
(A.) Romney had serious credibility issues. His switching sides on issues was documented, and it was always timed to help him come election time. Romney was anybody's dog who would take him to hunt.
(B.) The direction Romney moved to in order to secure the nomination was toward radicalism and away from the center, and thus away from most voters. He never made a clear move back.
(C.) Romney's background as a wealthy financier type surely horrified his campaign strategists. They tried to make it into an asset, but to most Americans, it was a turn-off, like making the evil banker in an old Tom Mix movie into the hero.
(D.) Romney shot himself in the foot by portraying America as almost evenly divided into moochers and producers. Apparently that was the real Romney, because this week he reiterated the view that Obama was elected by constituencies expecting a handout.
5. The economy. Bill Clinton's / James Carville's mantra "It's the economy, stupid!" ought to have won for Romney but it didn't. Going by poll results, positioning Romney as an ecoomic expert who could create jobs succeeded. But it still could not overcome the negatives.
6. A ship sailing against the wind. Romney and the GOP are consistently on the losing side of the numbers, whether it is abortion, contraception, taxation of the wealthy -- even Obamacare, since while most Americans came to oppose Obamacare, most wanted some kind of health insurance reform.
7. By gluing together evangelicals, racists, xenophobes, anti-environmentalists, anti-federalists, business people and the wealthy and those who identify with the wealthy, the Republicans have managed to dominate in some regions and some states. But the components of the GOP always threaten to fragment the way the nucleus of an unstable atom fragments, and they scare the heck out of some non-Republican voters who otherwise might vote with them.